Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.51 – 90.4

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

677 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 263.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.3 ±43.5

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 124.23Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 82.43Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.15Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -46.94Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.75Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.59Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3075, 1577, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3075, 1577, 5990

Auto

57.4 32%

Teleop

78.8 44%

Endgame

42.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1937, 11478, 11480

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1937, 11478, 11480

Auto

35.4 34%

Teleop

56.2 54%

Endgame

11.8 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score203.5pts

Blue projected score90.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.1
Score range: 32–262
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 713 vs event baseline 324.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.3Season APEX0

57.4Auto35.4

78.8Teleop56.2

42.8Endgame11.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	23
teleop	366	8
endgame	171	5
foul	0	0
total	677	36

Result

Final score

677 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 263.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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