Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92 – 63.75

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 125.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -13.38Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 59.87Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.51Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.18Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.28Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.29Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9303, 8223, 3316

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9303, 8223, 3316

Auto

34.9 37%

Teleop

79.5 85%

Endgame

-21.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2679, 4320, 11332

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2679, 4320, 11332

Auto

30.6 71%

Teleop

-33.6 0%

Endgame

46.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score92pts

Blue projected score63.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.3
Score range: 3–153
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 336.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

34.9Auto30.6

79.5Teleop-33.6

-21.2Endgame46

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	8
teleop	161	4
endgame	43	1
foul	15	0
total	292	13

Result

Final score

292 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 125.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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