Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.82 – 326.88

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

527 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 113.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 79.69Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 187.3Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.83Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 108.93Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 137.52Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 80.43Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4744, 4590, 11471

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4744, 4590, 11471

Auto

61.1 21%

Teleop

141.6 49%

Endgame

87.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11329, 4416, 11070

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11329, 4416, 11070

Auto

47.6 15%

Teleop

209.8 65%

Endgame

66.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304.8pts

Blue projected score326.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.1
Score range: 246–386
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 849 vs event baseline 330.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX0

61.1Auto47.6

141.6Teleop209.8

87.9Endgame66.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	23
teleop	270	175
endgame	134	109
foul	25	15
total	527	322

Result

Final score

527 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 113.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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