Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

279.38 – 469.51

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

503 – 327

Prediction missed · off by 183.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 89.73Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 86.06Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 103.59Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.53Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 183.13Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 194.85Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1574, 3339, 2212

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1574, 3339, 2212

Auto

37.2 13%

Teleop

188.2 68%

Endgame

51.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4586, 5614, 7845

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4586, 5614, 7845

Auto

82.3 18%

Teleop

265.4 58%

Endgame

106.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score279.4pts

Blue projected score469.5pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190.1
Score range: 221–528
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 323.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX0

37.2Auto82.3

188.2Teleop265.4

51.5Endgame106.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	106
teleop	263	154
endgame	152	52
foul	15	15
total	503	327

Result

Final score

503 – 327

Prediction missed · off by 183.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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