Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

365.25 – 412.47

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

418 – 404

Prediction missed · off by 30.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 243.83Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.68Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.74Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.38Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 209.08Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 102.01Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 11390, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2231, 11390, 3083

Auto

56.6 15%

Teleop

195.0 53%

Endgame

115.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1942, 7039, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1942, 7039, 5715

Auto

76.8 19%

Teleop

235.0 58%

Endgame

95.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score365.3pts

Blue projected score412.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.2
Score range: 308–469
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 822 vs event baseline 315.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.5Season APEX307.7

56.6Auto76.8

195Teleop235

115.5Endgame95.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	65
teleop	231	264
endgame	110	70
foul	0	5
total	418	404

Result

Final score

418 – 404

Prediction missed · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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