Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.03 – 11.67

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 83.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.15Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 68.93Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.95Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -57.68Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.69Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5990, 11480, 4320

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5990, 11480, 4320

Auto

14.6 13%

Teleop

90.8 82%

Endgame

4.9 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1937, 3316, 8175

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1937, 3316, 8175

Auto

15.4 84%

Teleop

12.4 67%

Endgame

-9.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score116pts

Blue projected score11.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.4
Score range: -48–176
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 334.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

14.6Auto-1.3

90.8Teleop-15.4

4.9Endgame-20.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	68
teleop	1	77
endgame	39	12
foul	20	0
total	94	157

Result

Final score

94 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 83.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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