Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.49 – 188.53

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

692 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 284 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 781.9 ±42.9

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 45.7Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 114.41Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.38Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 96.81Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 38.54Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4590, 1690, 4416

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4590, 1690, 4416

Auto

49.6 27%

Teleop

100.6 54%

Endgame

36.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3065, 4744, 11332

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3065, 4744, 11332

Auto

42.3 22%

Teleop

116.0 59%

Endgame

37.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.5pts

Blue projected score188.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 122–246
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 936 vs event baseline 319.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

781.9Season APEX0

49.6Auto26.4

100.6Teleop89.4

36.2Endgame26.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	133	56
teleop	377	100
endgame	177	88
foul	5	0
total	692	244

Result

Final score

692 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 284 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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