Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.24 – 129

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 122.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 61.81Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 111.43Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX -Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.1Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 55.14Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2679, 5614, 11471

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2679, 5614, 11471

Auto

48.1 24%

Teleop

123.4 60%

Endgame

32.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 3835, 4586

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1577, 3835, 4586

Auto

36.0 29%

Teleop

53.5 43%

Endgame

34.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.2pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.2
Score range: 71–265
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 582 vs event baseline 322.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX282.9

48.1Auto19.8

123.4Teleop26.7

32.8Endgame23.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	81
teleop	159	76
endgame	68	54
foul	60	30
total	341	241

Result

Final score

341 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 122.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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