Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

283.03 – 344.67

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

339 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 124.03Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.89Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 137.11Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 193.77Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 114.92Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.98Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7845, 3835, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

283 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7845, 3835, 5715

Auto

56.0 20%

Teleop

145.7 52%

Endgame

76.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7039, 2230, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7039, 2230, 8223

Auto

94.7 29%

Teleop

185.4 57%

Endgame

47.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score283pts

Blue projected score344.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.6
Score range: 219–409
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 355.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX307.7

56Auto94.7

145.7Teleop185.4

76.8Endgame47.6

77Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	73
teleop	179	217
endgame	98	58
foul	5	35
total	339	383

Result

Final score

339 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree