Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

745.27 – 541.01

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

811 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 128.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.73Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 308.87Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 378.67Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±43.5

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 79.92Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 242.32Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 218.77Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

745.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 2231, 1690

Auto

141.2 19%

Teleop

428.9 58%

Endgame

175.8 24%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11070, 4590, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

541 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11070, 4590, 3075

Auto

107.2 20%

Teleop

269.0 50%

Endgame

159.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.88 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score745.3pts

Blue projected score541pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.3
Score range: 478–808
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1161 vs event baseline 352.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX637.9

141.2Auto107.2

428.9Teleop269

175.8Endgame159.5

40Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	157	107
teleop	465	149
endgame	184	84
foul	5	10
total	811	350

Result

Final score

811 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 128.4 pts

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