Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

742.5 – 549.3

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

761 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.86Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 307.95Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 377.69Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±43.5

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 82.71Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 244.81Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 221.78Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

742.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 2231, 1690

Auto

138.1 19%

Teleop

432.8 58%

Endgame

172.3 23%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11070, 4590, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

549.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11070, 4590, 3075

Auto

108.1 20%

Teleop

277.6 51%

Endgame

159.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.86 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score742.5pts

Blue projected score549.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.2
Score range: 486–806
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1242 vs event baseline 348.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX637.9

138.1Auto108.1

432.8Teleop277.6

172.3Endgame159.5

37Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	162	102
teleop	400	204
endgame	199	160
foul	0	15
total	761	481

Result

Final score

761 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 pts

Match videos

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