Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.01 – 57.53

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 78.6 ±21.1

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 52.81Rank 7Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 41.85Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 6.35Rank 23Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±21.4

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 5.25Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 32.98Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 19.3Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10243, 6228, 9132

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10243, 6228, 9132

Auto

15.2 17%

Teleop

51.5 59%

Endgame

20.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10932, 10415, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10932, 10415, 10521

Auto

16.7 32%

Teleop

23.8 46%

Endgame

11.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.59 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score101pts

Blue projected score57.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.5
Score range: 37–122
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

78.6Season APEX203

15.2Auto16.7

51.5Teleop23.8

20.8Endgame11.6

17Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	94	9
endgame	77	0
foul	0	0
total	190	30

Result

Final score

190 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts