Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.5 – 55.66

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±42.5

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 10.14Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.66Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 36.7Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±21.4

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 2.57Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 34.48Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 18.61Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11000, 9991, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11000, 9991, 7466

Auto

18.7 36%

Teleop

19.8 38%

Endgame

14.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10932, 10415, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10932, 10415, 10521

Auto

17.1 35%

Teleop

22.1 45%

Endgame

9.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score65.5pts

Blue projected score55.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 36–86
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.3Season APEX203

18.7Auto17.1

19.8Teleop22.1

14.1Endgame9.7

14Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	24	29
endgame	13	17
foul	5	0
total	62	63

Result

Final score

62 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 5.4 pts