Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.26 – 47.39

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±18.1

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 43.85Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 40.17Rank 13Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 52.24Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.5 ±20.3

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 15.53Rank 15Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 31.8Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 0.06Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 9160, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9545, 9160, 10246

Auto

20.8 16%

Teleop

71.9 56%

Endgame

34.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7050, 6025, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.4 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7050, 6025, 6038

Auto

11.9 27%

Teleop

23.6 54%

Endgame

8.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score47.4pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.9
Score range: 27–156
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 111.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.3Season APEX164.5

20.8Auto11.9

71.9Teleop23.6

34.6Endgame8.4

9Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	13
teleop	115	11
endgame	42	1
foul	65	0
total	244	25

Result

Final score

244 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts