Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.21 – 60.97

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.1 ±19.7

6402GÖKTÜRKLER

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -1.14Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 46.29Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4972BORUSAN ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 46.06Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±21.4

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 5.27Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 35.62Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 20.08Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6402, 9473, 4972

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6402, 9473, 4972

Auto

16.1 16%

Teleop

60.0 61%

Endgame

21.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10932, 10415, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10932, 10415, 10521

Auto

18.1 33%

Teleop

26.3 49%

Endgame

9.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 41–111
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.1Season APEX203

16.1Auto18.1

60Teleop26.3

21.6Endgame9.8

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	15
teleop	66	13
endgame	15	9
foul	5	10
total	116	47

Result

Final score

116 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts