Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.32 – 70.42

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.1 ±15.6

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 145.38Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 117.02Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 20.92Rank 30Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.7 ±19.4

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 14.45Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 18.41Rank 17Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 37.56Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6431, 8859, 8182

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6431, 8859, 8182

Auto

34.3 12%

Teleop

179.3 65%

Endgame

63.2 23%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11000, 9026, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11000, 9026, 7466

Auto

21.9 36%

Teleop

29.6 49%

Endgame

8.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score283.3pts

Blue projected score70.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.9
Score range: 50–303
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 110.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.1Season APEX273.7

34.3Auto21.9

179.3Teleop29.6

63.2Endgame8.7

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	167	7
endgame	101	9
foul	15	5
total	300	49

Result

Final score

300 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts