Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.85 – 293.84

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 110.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±11

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 20.48Rank 35Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 115.13Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 214.24Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.1 ±15.6

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 148.61Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 120.14Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 25.09Rank 30Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11300, 9025, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11300, 9025, 8159

Auto

63.9 19%

Teleop

186.0 56%

Endgame

85.2 25%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 8859, 8182

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6431, 8859, 8182

Auto

31.7 11%

Teleop

185.8 65%

Endgame

69.0 24%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score349.9pts

Blue projected score293.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56
Score range: 273–371
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX311.1

63.9Auto31.7

186Teleop185.8

85.2Endgame69

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	46
teleop	173	64
endgame	9	36
foul	5	25
total	251	171

Result

Final score

251 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 110.8 pts