Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.38 – 71.38

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.5 ±15.3

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 35.71Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 33.14Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 52.53Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±42.5

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 15.1Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.57Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 35.71Rank 31Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6038, 6948, 8859

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 6948, 8859

Auto

25.0 21%

Teleop

79.2 65%

Endgame

17.1 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9545, 9991, 10906

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9545, 9991, 10906

Auto

20.1 29%

Teleop

43.4 62%

Endgame

6.3 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.4pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50
Score range: 58–134
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 72.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.5Season APEX216.1

25Auto20.1

79.2Teleop43.4

17.1Endgame6.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	12
teleop	9	47
endgame	57	10
foul	0	0
total	78	69

Result

Final score

78 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree