Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.3 – 107.04

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±18.1

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 202.22Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -18.83Rank 31Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX -2.09Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±16.2

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 3.79Rank 34Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 119.73Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -16.48Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 10906, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8159, 10906, 6038

Auto

51.6 27%

Teleop

95.6 51%

Endgame

40.7 22%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7298, 6431, 10141

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7298, 6431, 10141

Auto

28.3 28%

Teleop

54.1 54%

Endgame

17.9 18%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score181.3pts

Blue projected score107pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.3
Score range: 86–202
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX260.1

51.6Auto28.3

95.6Teleop54.1

40.7Endgame17.9

75Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	34
teleop	71	6
endgame	5	0
foul	0	0
total	125	40

Result

Final score

125 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree