Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.15 – 125.65

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.3 ±20.8

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 30.97Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 33.18Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -20Rank 31Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±20.3

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 44.66Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 55.69Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 25.3Rank 17Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6025, 7466, 10906

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6025, 7466, 10906

Auto

22.3 49%

Teleop

27.5 60%

Endgame

-4.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10415, 9473, 9026

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10415, 9473, 9026

Auto

12.5 11%

Teleop

60.4 53%

Endgame

40.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score44.2pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.5
Score range: 25–145
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 106.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.3Season APEX154.7

22.3Auto12.5

27.5Teleop60.4

-4.1Endgame40.2

15Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	20
teleop	19	52
endgame	19	10
foul	0	0
total	63	82

Result

Final score

63 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree