Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.27 – 79.17

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±20.8

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 17.26Rank 30Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 3.46Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -1.45Rank 34Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±20

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 22.68Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 35.6Rank 13Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 20.89Rank 15Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8182, 10932, 7298

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8182, 10932, 7298

Auto

15.7 55%

Teleop

18.7 66%

Endgame

-6.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11000, 9160, 7050

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11000, 9160, 7050

Auto

17.9 24%

Teleop

46.8 63%

Endgame

9.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score19.3pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.9
Score range: 0–98
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 107.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.7Season APEX254.1

15.7Auto17.9

18.7Teleop46.8

-6.1Endgame9.6

16Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	1	12
endgame	7	11
foul	15	5
total	39	48

Result

Final score

39 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree