Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.07 – 0

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±16.4

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 45.17Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 103.93Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 59.97Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.8 ±16.6

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -16.8Rank 35Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10141Turing Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -31.8Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4972BORUSAN ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 36.83Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 8859, 6228

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9545, 8859, 6228

Auto

31.8 16%

Teleop

130.4 66%

Endgame

36.4 18%

Strengths

· 8859 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 10141, 4972

/ 100 compat

Projected

-11.8 pts

~0.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11300, 10141, 4972

Auto

11.7 0%

Teleop

-8.5 88%

Endgame

-12.9 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.1pts

Blue projected score-11.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 209.1
Score range: -19–228
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335Season APEX205.8

31.8Auto11.7

130.4Teleop-8.5

36.4Endgame-12.9

20Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	13
teleop	137	40
endgame	71	13
foul	5	0
total	242	66

Result

Final score

242 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree