Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.13 – 20.74

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.1 ±21.4

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 35.02Rank 29Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 30.8Rank 32Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 61.31Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 82 ±43.5

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.72Rank 26Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 9.9Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 7.12Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10623, 10185, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10623, 10185, 10246

Auto

24.2 22%

Teleop

48.8 45%

Endgame

36.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9990, 6038, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 6038, 10521

Auto

1.6 9%

Teleop

-6.9 0%

Endgame

24.1 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.1pts

Blue projected score20.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.4
Score range: 2–146
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.1Season APEX82

24.2Auto1.6

48.8Teleop-6.9

36.1Endgame24.1

9Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	16	35
endgame	20	4
foul	0	0
total	45	58

Result

Final score

45 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree