Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.76 – 67.03

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.3 ±18

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 49.94Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 26.36Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 191.46Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.3 ±21.4

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 35.51Rank 28Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6402GÖKTÜRKLER

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 0.37Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 31.15Rank 22Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10415, 7466, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10415, 7466, 8159

Auto

55.9 22%

Teleop

144.2 57%

Endgame

51.2 20%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5655, 6402, 8263

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5655, 6402, 8263

Auto

13.5 25%

Teleop

24.9 47%

Endgame

14.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score267.8pts

Blue projected score67pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.7
Score range: 48–287
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.3Season APEX158.3

55.9Auto13.5

144.2Teleop24.9

51.2Endgame14.6

42Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	10
teleop	132	16
endgame	80	9
foul	0	15
total	287	50

Result

Final score

287 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree