Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.37 – 179.34

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.6 ±20.8

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 38.39Rank 13Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 43.37Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -0.39Rank 34Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±14.7

4972BORUSAN ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 40.49Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 88.76Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 50.09Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9160, 11365, 7298

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 11365, 7298

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

54.6 67%

Endgame

9.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4972, 9025, 9545

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4972, 9025, 9545

Auto

28.3 16%

Teleop

111.3 64%

Endgame

34.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.69 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score179.3pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98
Score range: 62–198
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.6Season APEX442.4

17.6Auto28.3

54.6Teleop111.3

9.5Endgame34.2

44Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	28	110
endgame	6	12
foul	0	0
total	57	138

Result

Final score

57 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree