Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.01 – 50.12

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.1 ±41.4

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.67Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -24.57Rank 35Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 16.91Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.4 ±43.7

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 28.2Rank 22Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.49Rank 26Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 22.41Rank 15Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 11300, 11000

/ 100 compat

Projected

8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 11300, 11000

Auto

7.3 0%

Teleop

-12.6 100%

Endgame

3.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8263, 9990, 7050

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8263, 9990, 7050

Auto

9.2 19%

Teleop

21.0 44%

Endgame

17.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score8pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.1
Score range: -11–69
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 107.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.1Season APEX141.4

7.3Auto9.2

-12.6Teleop21

3.9Endgame17.7

62Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	25
teleop	7	16
endgame	13	14
foul	15	15
total	53	70

Result

Final score

53 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree