Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.31 – 225.62

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±18.1

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 87.2Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 5.54Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 38.57Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.3 ±19.3

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 31.55Rank 15Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -6.02Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 200.09Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8859, 6025, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8859, 6025, 10415

Auto

18.1 13%

Teleop

79.2 59%

Endgame

38.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7050, 10521, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7050, 10521, 8159

Auto

46.0 21%

Teleop

121.2 55%

Endgame

54.5 25%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score225.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.3
Score range: 112–245
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.2Season APEX428.3

18.1Auto46

79.2Teleop121.2

38Endgame54.5

29Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	51
teleop	129	126
endgame	48	54
foul	35	0
total	245	231

Result

Final score

245 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 59.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree