Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.69 – 0

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.4 ±18.7

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 102.65Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 26.1Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 4.94Rank 30Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 62.3 ±43.5

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -48.52Rank 31Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 43.91Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.35Rank 26Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6431, 6228, 8182

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6431, 6228, 8182

Auto

25.5 24%

Teleop

57.9 54%

Endgame

24.6 23%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10906, 11365, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

-6 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10906, 11365, 9990

Auto

14.7 0%

Teleop

-1.7 49%

Endgame

-16.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score133.7pts

Blue projected score-6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.7
Score range: -18–152
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.4Season APEX62.3

25.5Auto14.7

57.9Teleop-1.7

24.6Endgame-16.5

37Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	19
teleop	205	21
endgame	54	19
foul	5	0
total	298	59

Result

Final score

298 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree