Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.13 – 115.26

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±18.8

6402GÖKTÜRKLER

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -18.22Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 20.71Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 17.64Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357 ±15.9

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 24.5Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 63.31Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 27.45Rank 32Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6402, 11000, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.1 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6402, 11000, 7466

Auto

20.8 100%

Teleop

4.5 100%

Endgame

-21.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6948, 9545, 10185

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6948, 9545, 10185

Auto

20.5 20%

Teleop

41.5 41%

Endgame

39.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.69 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score20.1pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.1
Score range: 1–134
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.6Season APEX357

20.8Auto20.5

4.5Teleop41.5

-21.1Endgame39.6

68Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	22	13
endgame	14	15
foul	0	0
total	58	50

Result

Final score

58 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree