Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.53 – 45.08

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.4 ±21.4

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -58.76Rank 31Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 61.81Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 40.48Rank 15Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.4 ±22.5

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -22.5Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 48.16Rank 13Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 19.42Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10906, 10246, 7050

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.5 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10906, 10246, 7050

Auto

25.2 66%

Teleop

26.9 70%

Endgame

-13.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10521, 9160, 6228

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10521, 9160, 6228

Auto

13.9 47%

Teleop

24.9 84%

Endgame

-9.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score43.5pts

Blue projected score45.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 25–64
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.4Season APEX160.4

25.2Auto13.9

26.9Teleop24.9

-13.7Endgame-9.1

29Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	25	64
endgame	18	40
foul	0	10
total	65	128

Result

Final score

65 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree