Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.29 – 112.3

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.2 ±42.2

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 86.14Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 27.64Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.51Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.5 ±18.7

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 83.92Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 13.69Rank 29Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 14.69Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6431, 10415, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6431, 10415, 9991

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

53.9 45%

Endgame

45.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9025, 10623, 10932

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9025, 10623, 10932

Auto

29.1 26%

Teleop

53.3 48%

Endgame

28.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score133.3pts

Blue projected score112.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 94–151
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.2Season APEX255.5

19.6Auto29.1

53.9Teleop53.3

45.8Endgame28.4

144Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	122	94
endgame	62	50
foul	40	5
total	240	167

Result

Final score

240 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree