Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.39 – 91.75

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.4 ±16.7

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 67.22Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 30.8Rank 22Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 72.37Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156 ±42.8

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 44.56Rank 28Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 71.86Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -24.67Rank 26Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9473, 8263, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9473, 8263, 9025

Auto

24.5 14%

Teleop

95.8 55%

Endgame

54.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5655, 8859, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5655, 8859, 9990

Auto

17.4 21%

Teleop

45.8 55%

Endgame

20.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score170.4pts

Blue projected score91.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.6
Score range: 74–188
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 97.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.4Season APEX156

24.5Auto17.4

95.8Teleop45.8

54.1Endgame20

0Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	125	99
endgame	52	54
foul	15	15
total	210	182

Result

Final score

210 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree