Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.24 – 119.31

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.6 ±14.7

9132Roborsa Başakşehir

Season APEX -4.5Event APEX 26.79Rank 23Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 95.33Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 90.12Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.6 ±16.5

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 30.68Rank 30Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 63.26Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 25.37Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9132, 6431, 9473

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9132, 6431, 9473

Auto

32.2 16%

Teleop

119.6 58%

Endgame

54.6 26%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8182, 8859, 11000

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8182, 8859, 11000

Auto

9.2 8%

Teleop

105.5 86%

Endgame

7.6 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score212.2pts

Blue projected score119.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.9
Score range: 102–229
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 95.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.6Season APEX256.6

32.2Auto9.2

119.6Teleop105.5

54.6Endgame7.6

0Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	52	54
endgame	58	40
foul	5	0
total	133	117

Result

Final score

133 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree