Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.52 – 65.85

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170 ±22.5

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 12.91Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 17.52Rank 17Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 17.09Rank 28Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±43.5

4972BORUSAN ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 47.66Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX -5.81Rank 30Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10521, 9026, 5655

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10521, 9026, 5655

Auto

2.5 7%

Teleop

21.3 62%

Endgame

10.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4972, 9991, 8182

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4972, 9991, 8182

Auto

6.0 11%

Teleop

35.0 65%

Endgame

12.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score47.5pts

Blue projected score65.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 27–87
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170Season APEX178.7

2.5Auto6

21.3Teleop35

10.8Endgame12.8

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	8
teleop	19	57
endgame	5	7
foul	5	0
total	32	72

Result

Final score

32 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree