Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 35.22

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±19

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 17.62Rank 28Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -15.65Rank 35Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX -9.32Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±20.8

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 0.69Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 12.64Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 21.89Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5655, 11300, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

-7.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5655, 11300, 7466

Auto

-1.9 10%

Teleop

-4.1 22%

Endgame

-12.5 68%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10932, 6038, 6228

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.2 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10932, 6038, 6228

Auto

27.4 100%

Teleop

-14.3 0%

Endgame

-5.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score-7.3pts

Blue projected score35.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: -18–53
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.3Season APEX145.8

-1.9Auto27.4

-4.1Teleop-14.3

-12.5Endgame-5.2

150Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	8
teleop	5	45
endgame	1	4
foul	15	15
total	30	72

Result

Final score

30 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree