Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.54 – 40.35

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.4 ±17.2

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 54.08Rank 7Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX -1.81Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 73.27Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.5 ±20.8

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX -16.44Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 0.88Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 55.91Rank 17Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10243, 11000, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10243, 11000, 9025

Auto

24.8 21%

Teleop

70.1 60%

Endgame

21.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6038, 7466, 9026

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 7466, 9026

Auto

9.3 25%

Teleop

26.8 72%

Endgame

1.1 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score40.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.2
Score range: 23–143
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 96.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.4Season APEX201.5

24.8Auto9.3

70.1Teleop26.8

21.9Endgame1.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	136	29
endgame	52	10
foul	0	10
total	205	61

Result

Final score

205 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree