Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.94 – 170.43

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 110.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.3 ±18.7

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -6.78Rank 24Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 18.9Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 1.82Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±17.5

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 22.69Rank 32Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 101.42Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 46.32Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10932, 9545, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.9 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10932, 9545, 10521

Auto

7.7 63%

Teleop

-5.4 0%

Endgame

10.0 81%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10185, 8159, 9473

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10185, 8159, 9473

Auto

30.2 18%

Teleop

118.1 69%

Endgame

23.8 14%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score13.9pts

Blue projected score170.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156.5
Score range: -2–186
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.3Season APEX359.8

7.7Auto30.2

-5.4Teleop118.1

10Endgame23.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	59
teleop	37	164
endgame	0	118
foul	10	0
total	64	341

Result

Final score

64 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 110.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree