Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.66 – 67.54

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±44

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 88.73Rank 15Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.92Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 57.01Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.1 ±18.1

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 32.76Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 43.29Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6402GÖKTÜRKLER

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -8.51Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7050, 9991, 6228

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7050, 9991, 6228

Auto

21.2 14%

Teleop

106.3 69%

Endgame

26.5 17%

Strengths

· 7050 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8859, 11365, 6402

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8859, 11365, 6402

Auto

13.3 20%

Teleop

28.1 42%

Endgame

25.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score164.7pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.1
Score range: 52–181
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 88.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.7Season APEX187.1

21.2Auto13.3

106.3Teleop28.1

26.5Endgame25.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	29
teleop	1	90
endgame	2	3
foul	40	0
total	62	122

Result

Final score

62 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree