Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.97 – 53.71

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 126.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 69.5 ±43.2

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 55.71Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 35.68Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.42Rank 26Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±19.3

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 6.97Rank 17Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 35.48Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 11.26Rank 13Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6228, 9473, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6228, 9473, 9990

Auto

25.1 30%

Teleop

46.9 57%

Endgame

10.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9026, 8159, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9026, 8159, 9160

Auto

20.9 39%

Teleop

37.9 72%

Endgame

-5.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample124alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 39–106
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 83.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

69.5Season APEX393

25.1Auto20.9

46.9Teleop37.9

10.9Endgame-5.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	43
teleop	43	181
endgame	15	73
foul	10	0
total	82	297

Result

Final score

82 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 126.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree