Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

463.7 – 600.4

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

267 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 202 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 779.9 ±8.7

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 182.47Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 141.14Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 140.09Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 799.7 ±8.8

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 285.8Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 206.81Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 107.79Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 1720, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.7 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 1720, 930

Auto

98.2 21%

Teleop

269.0 58%

Endgame

97.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 9032, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

600.4 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 359, 9032, 1710

Auto

92.6 15%

Teleop

357.7 60%

Endgame

148.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.54 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score463.7pts

Blue projected score600.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.7
Score range: 367–697
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 537.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

779.9Season APEX799.7

98.2Auto92.6

269Teleop357.7

97.2Endgame148.6

173Consistency192

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	61
teleop	146	219
endgame	37	113
foul	0	0
total	267	393

Result

Final score

267 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 202 pts

Match videos

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