Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

674.55 – 519.32

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

711 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 894.2 ±9.8

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 254.91Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 242.4Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 177.24Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 832.8 ±8.7

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 159.97Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 157.54Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 201.81Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 1706, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

674.6 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4028, 1706, 1732

Auto

123.6 18%

Teleop

367.7 55%

Endgame

181.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1002, 2468, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

519.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1002, 2468, 3641

Auto

113.0 22%

Teleop

305.4 60%

Endgame

91.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.98 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score674.6pts

Blue projected score519.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.2
Score range: 422–772
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1158 vs event baseline 537.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

894.2Season APEX832.8

123.6Auto113

367.7Teleop305.4

181.5Endgame91.4

147Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	150	113
teleop	356	195
endgame	185	139
foul	20	0
total	711	447

Result

Final score

711 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Match videos

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