Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
733.1 – 725.99
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
779 – 634
Prediction correct · off by 68.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 871.5 ±7.5
Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 280.4Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 190.8Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 261.9Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 836.9 ±8.1
Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 294.22Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265Event APEX 213.72Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 218.05Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1768, 7457, 67
85
/ 100 compatProjected
733.1 pts
~2.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 1768, 7457, 67
Auto
151.6 21%
Teleop
365.1 50%
Endgame
211.3 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 48%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 359, 9032, 1833
87
/ 100 compatProjected
726 pts
~2.1 RP (offseason)
Teams: 359, 9032, 1833
Auto
154.9 21%
Teleop
397.1 54%
Endgame
179.9 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 48%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.21 · Blue 2.12
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score733.1pts
Blue projected score726pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample180alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 50%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 7.1
- Score range
- 630–829
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
871.5Season APEX836.9
151.6Auto154.9
365.1Teleop397.1
211.3Endgame179.9
139Consistency191
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 116 | 68 |
| teleop | 484 | 339 |
| endgame | 179 | 227 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 779 | 634 |
Result
Final score
779 – 634
Prediction correct · off by 68.9 pts
Match videos
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