Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

835.05 – 551.29

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

881 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1115 ±8.8

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 224.66Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 295.02Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 315.37Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±8.7

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 147.22Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 150.67Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 253.4Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 2481, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

835.1 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 27, 2481, 8044

Auto

141.7 17%

Teleop

467.6 56%

Endgame

220.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 1720, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

551.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 1720, 1261

Auto

98.2 18%

Teleop

304.6 56%

Endgame

143.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.14 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score835.1pts

Blue projected score551.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 283.8
Score range: 455–931
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1348 vs event baseline 533.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1115Season APEX691.4

141.7Auto98.2

467.6Teleop304.6

220.7Endgame143.8

144Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	77
teleop	480	222
endgame	262	168
foul	0	0
total	881	467

Result

Final score

881 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Match videos

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