Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

718.76 – 646.46

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

580 – 727

Prediction missed · off by 109.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 871.5 ±7.5

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 273.29Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 186.6Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 258.87Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 836.9 ±8.1

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 263.59Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 182.97Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 199.9Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 7457, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

718.8 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 7457, 67

Auto

141.5 20%

Teleop

377.5 53%

Endgame

196.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 9032, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

646.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 359, 9032, 1833

Auto

122.3 19%

Teleop

352.7 55%

Endgame

171.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score718.8pts

Blue projected score646.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 548–817
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1307 vs event baseline 541.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

871.5Season APEX836.9

141.5Auto122.3

377.5Teleop352.7

196.5Endgame171.3

142Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	132
teleop	299	399
endgame	217	166
foul	0	30
total	580	727

Result

Final score

580 – 727

Prediction missed · off by 109.6 pts

Match videos

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