Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

708.18 – 652.45

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

709 – 751

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1044.6 ±8.7

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 289.33Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 255.3Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 163.55Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1075.2 ±8.8

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 209.69Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 289.81Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 152.95Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 2056, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

708.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5687, 2056, 5907

Auto

182.6 26%

Teleop

388.2 55%

Endgame

135.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 2481, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

652.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 27, 2481, 4499

Auto

121.4 19%

Teleop

350.3 54%

Endgame

171.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score708.2pts

Blue projected score652.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.7
Score range: 555–805
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1460 vs event baseline 539.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1044.6Season APEX1075.2

182.6Auto121.4

388.2Teleop350.3

135.6Endgame171.4

136Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	170	94
teleop	385	396
endgame	154	261
foul	0	0
total	709	751

Result

Final score

709 – 751

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 pts

Match videos

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