Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

717.68 – 681.11

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

730 – 646

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 871.5 ±7.5

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 275.08Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 185.95Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 256.65Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 894.2 ±9.8

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 258.09Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 243.75Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 179.27Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 7457, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

717.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 7457, 67

Auto

140.3 20%

Teleop

375.0 52%

Endgame

199.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4028, 1706, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

681.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4028, 1706, 1732

Auto

128.7 19%

Teleop

364.8 54%

Endgame

181.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.39 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score717.7pts

Blue projected score681.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.6
Score range: 584–815
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1376 vs event baseline 537.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

871.5Season APEX894.2

140.3Auto128.7

375Teleop364.8

199.7Endgame181.9

140Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	143	80
teleop	392	381
endgame	190	185
foul	5	0
total	730	646

Result

Final score

730 – 646

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Match videos

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