Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

348.07 – 467.79

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

775 – 522

Prediction missed · off by 240.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 934.8 ±9.8

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX -Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 91.14Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 176Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 842.5 ±9.3

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 228Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX -Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 158.86Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 9401, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 9401, 2481

Auto

82.6 24%

Teleop

176.8 51%

Endgame

88.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 3414, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.8 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8044, 3414, 6517

Auto

90.3 19%

Teleop

266.2 57%

Endgame

107.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score348.1pts

Blue projected score467.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.7
Score range: 261–555
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1297 vs event baseline 485.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

934.8Season APEX842.5

58.3Auto66

136.3Teleop225.7

72.6Endgame90.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	117
teleop	441	283
endgame	291	122
foul	0	0
total	775	522

Result

Final score

775 – 522

Prediction missed · off by 240.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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