Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

562.88 – 397.12

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

547 – 517

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 699.6 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 282.54Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 135.74Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 144.6Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 165.24Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 96.55Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 135.33Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 3176, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

562.9 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 3176, 469

Auto

115.0 20%

Teleop

313.4 55%

Endgame

136.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 3940, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5712, 3940, 1720

Auto

82.9 21%

Teleop

206.6 53%

Endgame

99.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.07 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score562.9pts

Blue projected score397.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 82%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.8
Score range: 301–659
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 1064 vs event baseline 534.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

699.6Season APEX604

115Auto82.9

313.4Teleop206.6

136.4Endgame99.4

153Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	113
teleop	282	278
endgame	174	126
foul	0	0
total	547	517

Result

Final score

547 – 517

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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