Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

457.03 – 419.08

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

336 – 599

Prediction missed · off by 150.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.8 ±8.1

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX -1.4Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 316.79Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 141.64Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 851 ±9.3

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 194.33Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 156.63Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 68.12Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 359, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

457 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 234, 359, 930

Auto

77.7 17%

Teleop

269.5 58%

Endgame

116.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 3641, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 3641, 1710

Auto

84.7 21%

Teleop

266.9 66%

Endgame

51.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.25 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score457pts

Blue projected score419.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.9
Score range: 322–554
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 536.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.8Season APEX851

77.7Auto84.7

269.5Teleop266.9

116.6Endgame51.8

195Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	105
teleop	144	427
endgame	96	67
foul	0	0
total	336	599

Result

Final score

336 – 599

Prediction missed · off by 150.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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