Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

558.65 – 440.21

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

689 – 540

Prediction correct · off by 115.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 835.9 ±9.8

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 292.41Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 124.54Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 141.7Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 817.6 ±9.4

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 87.65Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 194.7Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 157.86Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2481, 1720, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

558.7 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2481, 1720, 1918

Auto

83.1 15%

Teleop

322.1 59%

Endgame

137.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3940, 27, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.2 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3940, 27, 4143

Auto

101.9 23%

Teleop

219.6 50%

Endgame

117.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.86 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score558.7pts

Blue projected score440.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.4
Score range: 344–655
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1229 vs event baseline 532.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

835.9Season APEX817.6

83.1Auto101.9

322.1Teleop219.6

137.2Endgame117.5

156Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	89
teleop	412	274
endgame	209	147
foul	0	30
total	689	540

Result

Final score

689 – 540

Prediction correct · off by 115.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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